O'Neil Perspective

This link will play a brief segment from an interview I did this morning on KFNN 1510 Financial News Radio's "Business for Breakfast" on the subject of last night's elections. It was early and I was half asleep.  More considered written observations follow.

 
Senator John McCain and Governor Jan Brewer cruised to easy victories last night.  At this point both Republican incumbents seem poised to win their respective November elections handily.

McCain and Brewer both rode the immigration issue to victory.  Brewer's fate was sealed when she signed SB 1070 which caused the almost immediate disintegration of her Republican opposition.  In McCain's case, he shifted his posture on the issue sufficiently that, coupled with a $20 million budget and flawed opponent, he was able to win decisively.

Interestingly, McCain's victory was big news on CNN and in international outlets such as the BBC. Here in Arizona, however, the outcome was so expected that the story was actually "below the fold" on Page 1 of the Arizona Republic.



Even though McCain has never been a darling of the Republican establishment in Arizona, it is hard to see him being beaten by a former city councilman from Tucson.

In the Gubernatorial race, the only question seems to be, "When will the Terry Goddard campaign begin?"  In the absence of a game changing-event, Brewer seems poised to cruise to victory.  A game-changing event could always happen, but none is currently on the horizon. Look for an "All SB1070/All the Time" Brewer campaign.  She knows that's a winner. 


Arizona's congressional delegation currently consists of five Democrats and three Republicans.  Three of the five Democrats hold seats that are logically Republican. Indeed, each was held by a Republican until the Democrats swept the last two elections.  All three of these seats, District 1 (held by Ann Kirkpatrick), District 5 (held by Harry Mitchell), and District 8 (held by Gabrielle Giffords), are distinctly in play.  In our judgment, Harry Mitchell is the Democrat among this trio most likely to keep his seat, even though the district is arguably the most Republican of the three. We attribute this to his personal popularity: he taught at Tempe High School for 20 years and was a very popular Mayor for eight years, as well as a State Senator. In addition, he has the luxury of facing an opponent he has already beaten. As a result, he is the Democrat most likely to withstand a Republican onslaught.

The wild card in this congressional arithmetic may be Congressional District 3.  This is a solid Republican district.  The seat is currently held by retiring Republican John Shadegg.  The primary victor, Ben Quayle, however, could only muster a little over 14,000 votes (about 22%) after spending $1.3 million. That's almost $100 for every vote he received.  But what does the public know of Ben Quayle?  Only two things: his daddy was vice president and he used to write for a risqué web site ("Dirty Scottsdale").  We think there is an opening here for a credible and decently funded Democratic candidate Jon Hulburd to make the case that Quayle's parentage and expertise on the Scottsdale club scene does not qualify him to be a congressman.  We think this race is in play.

We thus have what is probably the most interesting lineup of congressional races in the state's hundred year old history. Two Democrats, Raul Grijalva (District 7) and Ed Pastor (District 4) will be reelected as will two Republicans, Trent Franks (District 2) and Jeff Flake (District 6). Take these predictions to the bank.

The other four seats are absolutely in play.  All four are in arguably Republican districts, but three are currently held by Democrats.  If a Republican sweep materializes on a national level, the Republicans could end up holding six of the eight congressional seats.  On the other hand, it is not completely implausible that the Democrats could hang on to the three seats which they captured in the last two election cycles, and pick up a seat in congressional District 3 due to a weak Republican candidate (Quayle).  If this happens, it would actually give the Democrats a net increase of one seat. Not the most likely scenario in what otherwise will be a big Republican year, but it is a plausible one.

Joe Arpaio had a mixed night.  Arpaio's opposition to Rick Romley's candidacy for County Attorney seemed decisive, but it was apparently insufficient to get his buddy Andrew Thomas nominated for Attorney General. At this writing, Tom Horne is 373 votes ahead, with a handful of precincts and a few provisional ballots still to report.  The trend, however, favors Horne.  Thomas led in the early ballots but was evidently hurt by a spate of negative information about his actions as County Attorney that came out during the course of the campaign.  As a result, Tom Horne carried the day on the basis of votes that were actually cast yesterday.

Our reading of the tea leaves strongly suggests that after the November election the Republicans will control the Governors office, as well as strong majorities in the both the State House and Senate. When voters look at a likely outcome like this, they instinctively want to elect someone to keep the dominant party honest.  The ideal office to do this from is Attorney General.  We think this will aid the presumptive Democratic nominee, Felecia Rotellini (if her slim 1,350 vote lead holds).  Voters will instinctively prefer electing a Democrat for this office since Republican's look likely to control every other major office in the state. This sentiment worked out pretty well once before when a female first-time office seeker ran for Attorney General as a Democrat in a year when Republicans were poised to win every other major statewide office.  Her name: Janet Napolitano.  She parlayed this victory into a pretty good career.

There is another reason to think Democrat Felecia Rotellini will fare well.  Her apparent  primary victory occurred in a well-behaved, dignified campaign-one that will not leave scars.  The Horne - Thomas Republican primary, however, was brutal, vituperative and downright nasty. Those wounds may not ever heal.

 

-Michael J. O'Neil, PhD

Good interview discussing tomorrow's Arizona Primary election.

Scroll down on the left and you will see three videos, each conforming to part of the interview which aired on Fox TV yesterday.

http://www.myfoxphoenix.com/dpp/news/politics/newsmaker_sunday/newsmaker-sunday-08222010

 

Michael J. O'Neil, PhD

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• General Election Prognosis for All Major Arizona Offices
• Reflections on the Arizona Primary Election
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• “Conservative” Arizona Voters Vote for Increase in Sales Tax -- Why?
• Pollster reflects on Polls: Why the Worst Polls Get Reported the Most
• The Arizona Immigration Law: Some Things You Probably Didn’t Know About Arizona Politics
• Obamacare?
• Wall Street Bonuses and Tax Equity: A Modest Proposal for the State of the Union
• Health Care Reform: Losing the Message War
• The Public Option

• General [43]

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