Tight Race:
Community Leaders
Split Among Napolitano,
Bayless, and Salmon for Governor
Community leaders in the Valley are closely divided
among Janet Napolitano, Betsey Bayless, and Matt Salmon in this year’s race for
Governor of Arizona, according to a just
completed O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll of business and community
leaders across Maricopa County. With the 
support of one-third (34%) of influentials in the Valley,
Attorney General Napolitano, the leading Democratic contender, receives more
support than any other candidate. Secretary of State Betsey Bayless and former
U.S. Representative Matt Salmon, the Republican frontrunners, are tied for
second place at 26% each. Former State Senate Majority Leader Alfredo
Gutierrez, also a Democrat, is a distant fourth (11%). No other candidate
receives more than 2% support among community leaders. (These percentages are
calculated without the 7% who remain undecided).
According to the
director of the poll, Dr. Michael O’Neil, “The strong showing of Janet
Napolitano must be seen in light of the fact that, whereas she appears to be
the leading contender on the Democratic side, the Republican vote is split
between two strong candidates running neck-and-neck.” “Nevertheless,” Dr.
O’Neil continued, “it is remarkable that Napolitano fares as well as she does
among business and community leaders, who tend to be heavily Republican, and
also that Bayless is in a tie with Salmon, who seems to have been the anointed
Republican candidate in most media coverage so far.” The support of community
leaders is crucial in that these people are likely to influence the opinions of
others and also tend to vote in greater proportions than the public at large.
Said Dr. O’Neil,
“It will be interesting to follow how the Republican vote breaks when just one
candidate emerges from the Republican primary. Will some female Republican
voters prefer Napolitano over Salmon if Bayless loses the primary? Will
Salmon’s supporters automatically shift their vote to Bayless if she wins it?”
Dr. O’Neil also
cautioned that Alfredo Gutierrez, as the fourth and final viable candidate, not
be discounted too soon: “June is still an early stage of the campaign, and
Gutierrez clearly has the track record to be a strong contender. We also must
not forget that ethnic and racial diversity, which may be his strongest card to
play, has not yet become an issue in media coverage of the gubernatorial race.”
Conservatives vs. Liberals
As would be expected, candidate
preference is strongly influenced by party registration and ideological
conviction. Among registered Republicans, Salmon receives 40% support, Bayless
35%, Napolitano 17%, and Gutierrez 5%. Among Democrats, in contrast, Napolitano
dominates with 63%, ahead of Gutierrez with 24%, Bayless with 24%, and Salmon
with 11%. The favorite among those describing themselves as conservatives is
Salmon (44%), ahead of Bayless (32%) and Napolitano (15%), whereas liberals
strongly favor Napolitano (64%), ahead of Gutierrez (21%), Salmon (7%) and
Bayless (5%). Among political moderates, 36% would prefer Napolitano in the
Governor’s office, 28% Bayless, 20% Salmon, and 12% Gutierrez. (All subgroup
percentages, such as those based on Republicans or Democrats, are calculated
without “don’t know responses).
Support also differs among members of the four
organizations whose members participated in the survey. Most strikingly, almost
half (47%) the members of East Valley Partnership support Salmon, who is well
ahead of Bayless and Napolitano tied for second with 20% each. “Salmon was the
elected U.S. Representative of the East Valley, and it is clear that a great
deal of loyalty remains among his old constituents,” said Dr. O’Neil.
Napolitano
leads with 38%) among members of Valley Leadership, ahead of Bayless (27%) and Salmon
(20%). Greater Phoenix Leadership members support Salmon and Bayless with
one-third (32%) each, while 24% prefer Napolitano. Westmarc members are split
in almost equal groups among Bayless (34%), Salmon (31%), and Napolitano (27%).
About the Poll. The
O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll is a web-based survey
that was sent to all members of Greater Phoenix Leadership, Valley Leadership,
East Valley Partnership, and Westmarc. As such, this survey does not purport to
be a random or representative sampling of the general population
of the Phoenix metropolitan area. It would be difficult, however, to conceive
of a more comprehensive representation from which to draw inferences about the
opinions and sensibilities of business and community leaders than
the combined membership of these organizations, although, inevitably, any
definition of influentials is somewhat subjective. The persons surveyed are
likely to exert disproportionate influence on and be an early indicator of
community opinion by virtue of their position, community involvement, and
political participation.
The O’Neil Associates
Valley Influentials Poll was not sponsored or paid for by any outside
organization. Four hundred eight participants completed the survey
between June 13 and June 24, 2002, yielding a margin of error of ±4.5%. O’Neil
Associates, Inc. is a Tempe-based public opinion research firm specializing in
client-focused attitude and awareness studies for a wide variety of industries
and organizations.
FOR IMMEDIATE RELEASE (VIP003-2002-01)
FURTHER INFORMATION: Michael
O'Neil, Ph.D., 480-967-4441
These results may be
reported freely provided that they are identified as the “O’Neil Associates
Valley Influentials Poll” including identification on any graphic material.
O’Neil Associates has
tracked public opinion across the Valley, Arizona, and the Nation since 1981.
To be healthy, public debate must be informed—this is why we gladly commit our
resources to measuring opinions on the political and social issues people care
about and talk about. O’Neil Associates, however, is much more than that.
While the Valley Influentials Poll and Valley Monitor may be our
most publicly visible activities, we do most of our work for private businesses
and organizations as well as state and other public agencies. As a full-service
research firm, we assist our clients with a broad range of research efforts to
measure customer satisfaction, improve customer service, fine-tune public
images, focus marketing campaigns, engineer products, increase market shares,
strengthen employee relations, and plan, refine, and assess business
strategies.
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