Community Leaders Lukewarm About State of Economy:

Believe National Recovery Underway,
Arizona Lagging Behind

Community and business leaders in the Valley are unethusiastic about the state of the economy in Arizona and across the nation, according to a just completed O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll of business and community leaders throughout Maricopa County. They believe, however, that whereas America is on the right track towards economic recovery, the performance of Arizona leaves more to be desired.

Identical majorities (59%) of the Valley’s community leaders believe economic conditions in Arizona and the nation are “only fair” or “poor.” According to the director of the poll, Dr. Michael O’Neil, “Given both the media coverage of the economy and the actual state of affairs in the country and our state, it is hardly surprising that more community leaders than not find our economy to be somewhat deficient.”

Long Road to Recovery for Arizona

Dr. O’Neil continued, “In an Arizonan context, however, it is perhaps more worrisome that Valley leaders expect Arizona’s climb out of the doldrums to be a more lengthy affair than what they expect of the nation as a whole—after all, these are people with their finger on the economic trigger, so to speak.”

Indeed, whereas 43% believe the economic conditions of the United States are improving, and only 11% feel the nation’s economy is deteriorating, just one-third (29%) believe Arizona is on the right track, with almost as many (24%) finding the state’s economic conditions to be on a downward slope currently.

Local community leaders are slightly more upbeat about the state of the U.S. economy than Americans are overall, but are slightly less hopeful about its current direction. According to the most recent Gallup poll, 37% of Americans rate the national economy as excellent or good (4 percentage points lower than the VIP), but 47% think conditions are improving (4 percentage points higher than the VIP).

Follow the Leader?

With a Republican administration riding high on a wave of patriotism, one might have expected pessimism to be more prominent among Democrats. The survey, however, offers mixed conclusions: On the one hand, Republican community and business leaders (58% “fair/poor”) appear about as likely as their Democratic peers (62%) to give the national economy their thumbs-down. On the other hand, Republicans (43% “Better”) are slightly more likely than Democrats (36%) to think the economy is improving, suggesting, perhaps, a slightly greater endorsement of the Administration’s current direction.

As is the case with the U.S. economy, Republicans (58% “fair/poor”) appear to be only slightly less pessimistic than Democrats (62%) about the general state of Arizona’s economy. Concerning the state economy’s current direction, however, Republicans also do not show greater confidence (30% “Better”) than Democrats (28%), in contrast to Republicans’ greater faith in moving forward nationwide.

Said Dr. O’Neil, “National politics is slowly emerging from its post-9-11 truce, and familiar patterns of support are beginning to reappear. But the Bush Administration is still somewhat sacrosanct. For fear of seeming unpatriotic, even non-Republicans may not want to seem overly critical of the
direction of the country, because it could be interpreted as criticism of the popular President.”

As for Arizona, however, “Our state government is by no means off-limits. Many Arizonans feel we have been served poorly by the people we elected, and community leaders are no exception.” This, according to Dr. O’Neil, helps explain why even the state’s Republicans are not more hopeful about Arizona’s progress.

Differences by Organization

Finally, community and business leaders from the four participating organizations differ considerably in their degree of faith in economic recovery. Members of East Valley Partnership appear to be the most optimistic, followed by Greater Phoenix Leadership and Westmarc members, with Valley Leadership’s members appearing to be somewhat less hopeful, particularly as regards Arizona’s economic progress.

About the Poll. The O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll is a web-based survey that was sent to all members of Greater Phoenix Leadership, Valley Leadership, East Valley Partnership, and Westmarc. As such, this survey does not purport to be a random or representative sampling of the general population of the Phoenix metropolitan area. It would be difficult, however, to conceive of a more comprehensive representation from which to draw inferences about the opinions and sensibilities of business and community leaders than the combined membership of these organizations, although, inevitably, any definition of influentials is somewhat subjective. The persons surveyed are likely to exert disproportionate influence on and be an early indicator of community opinion by virtue of their position, community involvement, and political participation. The O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll was not sponsored or paid for by any outside organization. Four hundred eight participants completed the survey between June 13 and June 24, 2002, yielding a margin of error of ±4.5%. O’Neil Associates, Inc. is a Tempe-based public opinion research firm specializing in client-focused attitude and awareness studies for a wide variety of industries and organizations.

FOR RELEASE FRIDAY, JULY 12, 12 Noon (VIP004-2002-01)

FURTHER INFORMATION: Michael O'Neil, Ph.D., 480-967-4441

These results may be reported freely provided that they are identified as the “O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll” including identification on any graphic material.

O’Neil Associates has tracked public opinion across the Valley, Arizona, and the Nation since 1981. To be healthy, public debate must be informed—this is why we gladly commit our resources to measuring opinions on the political and social issues people care about and talk about. O’Neil Associates, however, is much more than that. While the Valley Influentials Poll and Valley Monitor may be our most publicly visible activities, we do most of our work for private businesses and organizations as well as state and other public agencies. As a full-service research firm, we assist our clients with a broad range of research efforts to measure customer satisfaction, improve customer service, fine-tune public images, focus marketing campaigns, engineer products, increase market shares, strengthen employee relations, and plan, refine, and assess business strategies.

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