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War
in Iraq: A Losing Battle for Bush?
Valley
leaders disapprove of the Bush
Administration’s handling of the war
in Iraq.
According to a just-released Valley
Influentials Poll that sampled
members of Valley Leadership, Greater
Phoenix Leadership, East Valley
Partnership, and Westmarc, the Bush
administration has not effectively
handled the war in Iraq.
Despite the fact that the poll
sampled Valley leaders, a heavily
Republican population (48% Republican,
38% Democrat, 14% Independent), fully
two-thirds of respondents (66%)
disapprove of the Administration’s
overall handling of the war.
Approximately half of all
respondents (46%) feel that senior
members of the Bush Administration
should resign over the Abu Ghraib
prison scandal and an even greater
proportion (62%) does not believe the
Administration was honest when it
presented the case for invading Iraq.
Republicans
vs. Democrats
Within
this sample we observe expected
differences between Republicans and
Democrats, with Democrats considerably
more critical of the
Administration’s performance across
every measure.
An overwhelming 94% of
Democrats polled disapprove of the
Administration’s overall handling of
the war, compared to 38% of
Republicans.
Meanwhile,
69% of Democrats believe senior
members of the Bush Administration
should resign over the Abu Ghraib
prison scandal, compared to only 26%
of Republicans.
Similarly,
89% of Democrats, compared to only 35%
of Republicans believe the
Administration was dishonest when
making its case to invade Iraq.
According
to the director of the poll, Dr.
Michael O’Neil, “The huge
disparities between Republicans and
Democrats are to be expected.”
“I think the real surprise
with these results is the proportion
of Republicans who disapprove of the
Bush Administration,” he continued.
“In a battleground state,
thirty-nine percent of Republicans
disapproving of the overall handling
of the war, over a quarter wanting
senior administration officials to
resign and 35% perceiving dishonesty
are by no means insignificant
minorities.
For a President up for
reelection, such divisions within
members of his own party offer no
comfort for November.”
Independents
Align with Democrats
The
differences between Republicans and
Democrats, however, are not nearly as
informative as are the opinions of one
group: Independents.
Since Independent voters are
anticipated to play a deciding role in
the upcoming election, their opinions
about the Bush Administration’s
performance on key topics, such as war
in Iraq, are of particular interest
this election season.
With respect to their
assessments of the war in Iraq, it
appears that Independents are more
closely aligning with Democrats than
with Republicans.
In fact, 85% of Independents
polled disapprove of the Bush
Administration’s overall handling of
the war.
Although this proportion is not
nearly as large as the 94% of
Democrats who disapprove, it is a
substantially larger than the
proportion of disapproving Republicans
(38%).
Mirroring
this observation, the proportion of
Independents who believe the Bush
Administration was dishonest when
making the case for war in Iraq (78%)
more closely resembles the proportion
of Democrats (89%) than the proportion
of Republicans who perceived
dishonesty (35%).
Similarly, half (50%) of
Independents polled, compared to 69%
of Democrats and just 26% of
Republicans, would like to see senior
members of the Bush Administration
resign over the mistreatment of
prisoners at Abu Ghraib.
When analyzing this pattern,
Dr. O’Neil commented that,
“depending on how big of an issue
Iraq becomes immediately prior to the
election, this trend could be
detrimental to Bush’s reelection
campaign.”
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About
the Poll. The O’Neil Associates
Valley Influentials Poll is a web-based
survey that was sent to all members
of Greater Phoenix Leadership, Valley
Leadership, East Valley Partnership,
and Westmarc. As such, this survey
does not purport to be a random or
representative sampling of the general
population of the Phoenix metropolitan
area. It would be difficult, however,
to conceive of a more comprehensive
representation from which to draw
inferences about the opinions and
sensibilities of business and community
leaders than the combined membership
of these organizations, although,
inevitably, any definition of influentials
is somewhat subjective. The persons
surveyed are likely to exert disproportionate
influence on and be an early indicator
of community opinion by virtue of
their position, community involvement,
and political participation. The O’Neil
Associates Valley Influentials Poll
was not sponsored or paid for by any
outside organization. Three hundred participants completed the survey
between July 15 and July 28, 2004,
yielding a margin of error of
±5.7%.
O’Neil Associates, Inc. is a Tempe-based
public opinion research firm specializing
in client-focused attitude and awareness
studies for a wide variety of industries
and organizations. |
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FOR
RELEASE: Monday, August 2, 2004
(VIP
030-2004-05)
FURTHER INFORMATION: Michael O'Neil,
Ph.D., 480-967-4441 ext. 221 These
results may be reported freely provided
that they are identified as the “O’Neil
Associates Valley Influentials Poll”
including identification on any graphic
material. |
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O’Neil
Associates has tracked public
opinion across the Valley, Arizona,
and the Nation since 1981. To
be healthy, public debate must
be informed—this is why we commit
our resources to measuring opinions
on the political and social
issues people care about and
talk about. O’Neil Associates,
however, is much more than
that. While the Valley
Influentials Poll and
Valley Monitor
may be our most publicly visible
activities, we do most of our
work for private businesses
and organizations as well as
state and other public agencies.
As a full-service research firm,
we assist our clients with a
broad range of research efforts
to measure customer satisfaction,
improve customer service, fine-tune
public images, focus marketing
campaigns, engineer products,
increase market shares, strengthen
employee relations, and plan,
refine, and assess business
strategies. |
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