2006
Race for Governor:
Napolitano
Dominates
At
this preliminary stage of discussion
on the subject of the 2006 race for
Governor, Governor Janet Napolitano
remains the clear preference of our
Valley’s leaders.
In an effort to assess the
opinions held by local business,
community and art leaders on various
issues, the Valley Influentials
Poll surveys members of Valley
Leadership, East Valley Partnership,
Westmarc and Greater Phoenix
Leadership.
According to the just-released
iteration of this poll, Janet
Napolitano has the support of a sound
majority, regardless of her
competition.
Respondents were asked who they will likely vote
for under each of the most likely
scenarios: Napolitano versus
Congressman J.D. Hayworth and
Napolitano versus retiring Maricopa
County Attorney Rick Romley.
The name on the Republican
ticket does not appear to impact
election outcome at this early point.
In fact, when pitted against
J.D. Hayworth, Governor Napolitano was
the clear choice of a full 71% of
respondents.
She garnered a nearly identical
level of support (69%) in a
hypothetical race against Rick Romley. Minds
Made Up Despite
the fact that the next race for the
Governor’s office is well over two
years away, very few of our Valley’s
opinion leaders are undecided when
asked whom they intend to vote for.
Under both possible ballot
scenarios, no more than one-in-ten
respondents (10%) were undecided. Democrats
United, Republicans Split Political
affiliation impacts vote intent.
Democrats are virtually
unanimous in their support for
Governor Napolitano.
Republicans, on the other hand,
are not putting up such an even front.
At this point, Republicans are
split roughly evenly with some
planning to help reelect Governor
Napolitano, and others choosing the
Republican candidate vying for her
position. 
It
is not surprising that under both
possible scenarios Republicans are
significantly more likely than
Democrats to choose the contender
rather than reelect Governor
Napolitano.
J.D. Hayworth reaped the
support of 41% of Republicans, but
only 2% of Democrats.
Similarly, Rick Romley is
supported by 38% of Republicans, and
only a mere 4% of Democrats.
Napolitano
Strong Among Republicans It
is interesting to note, that under
each possible scenario Napolitano is
holding her own among Republicans.
When pitted against J.D.
Hayworth, Governor Napolitano has the
support of 47% of our Valley’s
leaders who are registered as
Republicans, while Hayworth reaps a
comparable 42% of their votes.
The Republican figures swing
even more in favor or Governor
Napolitano if she competes against
Rick Romley.
Under this scenario, 47% of
Republican Valley leaders intend to
vote for incumbent Governor Napolitano,
while notably fewer (38%) say they
will support Rick Romley.
The
poll’s director, Dr. Michael
O’Neil commented on the results,
“Although this is a very preliminary
measure, the strong support for
Governor Napolitano among Valley
leaders, who have always skewed
Republican, is indicative of the
uphill battle that the eventual
Republican candidate will have against
this strong incumbent.
The proportion of Republicans
backing Governor Napolitano is also
quite telling.
The race is a long ways off
yet, and it will be interesting to
follow how the Republican vote breaks
when one candidate ultimately emerges
on the Republican ticket.” Republican
Primary – A Tossup Republican
respondents were asked an additional
question pertaining to the
Gubernatorial Primary. Republican respondents were asked if they would most likely
choose Rick Romley or J.D. Hayworth to
compete with Governor Janet Napolitano
in the 2006 election.
At this point, Maricopa County
Attorney Rick Romley and Congressman
J.D. Hayworth are drawing roughly even
levels of support, though it must be
noted that over one-quarter of
Republicans (26%) are not yet decided.
Currently, 38% of Republican Valley
leaders say they will most likely vote
for Congressman J.D. Hayworth in the
upcoming election, while a nearly
identical 35% will opt for Rick Romley. 
Men
Support Hayworth, Women Split
Congressman
J.D. Hayworth appears to be drawing
modestly more support than retiring
Maricopa County Attorney Rick Romley
among male respondents, while women
support the two possible candidates
evenly.
A full 42% of men support J.D.
Hayworth, versus a somewhat smaller
34% supporting Rick Romley. This support among men accounts for all of his current modest
lead.
Among women surveyed, however,
both potential candidates are
supported by 35%.
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