O'Neil Associates

On the Eve of Presidential Debate:

Terrorism and Iraq – No Relief in Sight

On the Eve of the first 2004 Presidential Debate, slated to focus on issues relating to foreign policy and national security, a just released poll of Valley leaders indicates that these community leaders do not believe that the threat of terrorism has been reduced by the war in Iraq.  The Valley Influentials poll surveys members of Westmarc, Valley Leadership, Greater Phoenix Leadership and East Valley Partnership in an effort to determine the opinions held about key issues by our local business and community leaders.

Respondents were asked how they think the war in Iraq has impacted the threat of terrorism here at home.  Nearly half of our Valley’s leaders believe the war in Iraq has actually increased the threat of terror in the U.S. (48%), while only one-fifth (20%) of respondents feel the war has reduced the threat of terrorism.  The remaining 32% believes the threat of terrorism remains the same as it was prior to war with Iraq.  An overwhelming four-fifths (80%) of respondents feel that the terror threat has either increased or remained the same following war in Iraq.

Although the assessments of Valley leaders are split regarding a relationship between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda, a majority does not believe Saddam Hussein was in any way involved in the September 11th terrorist attacks.  The Valley Influentials Poll found that our Valley leaders are evenly divided in their assessment of a relationship between Saddam Hussein’s regime and Al Qaeda. 

Party Differences

Party lines are unmistakable, with Republicans strongly believing a relationship between Hussein and Al Qaeda existed, and Democrats matching their vehemence, but believing that no such relationship ever existed.  A full 67% of Republicans believe a relationship existed; this is matched by 70% of Democrats believing that no such relationship ever existed.  Independents are more evenly split in their assessment, with 41% believing a working relationship between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda existed, and 59% not convinced of any such relationship. 

No Link Perceived Between Saddam Hussein and Al Qaeda

When mention of Al Qaeda was removed, and the question inquired about Saddam Hussein’s link to the September 11th terrorist attacks, the figures change considerably; seven-in-ten respondents (71%) do not believe Saddam Hussein was in any way involved in the attacks.  Although still evident, the difference between Republicans and Democrats is narrowed considerably.  The overall figure includes 62% of Republicans and 77% of Democrats who perceive no link between Hussein and September 11th.  Nearly four-fifths (79%) of Independents believe that Saddam Hussein was not in any way involved with the September 11th terrorist attacks. 

Troops in Iraq

Despite being mixed in their assessments of Saddam Hussein’s relationship with Al Qaeda, remaining skeptical about any attempt to link Hussein to September 11th, and not perceiving a reduction in the risk of terror following the invasion of Iraq, Valley leaders remain committed to U.S. military efforts in the country.  When asked how long U.S. troops should remain in Iraq, only 13% of respondents want our troops to leave immediately.  Instead, 48% will support U.S. efforts in Iraq for “as long as it takes,” and another 39% would like the U.S. to withdraw after Iraqi elections. 

The poll’s director, Dr. Michael O’Neil commented, “It seems the general consensus is that, regardless of whether a link between Hussein and Al Qaeda or between Hussein and 9-11 ever existed, a simple withdrawal of our troops is not seen as an appropriate answer to any questions of the war’s legitimacy.  We are there, regardless of how we got there.  There is a job to be done.  The American people may not all believe the war was justified, but they recognize that the consequences of an immediate pullout would be negative.”

“Despite the misgivings reflected in this poll, other polls of the general public have consistently indicated that the public believes that President Bush is stronger on issues of defense and national security than is his Democratic challenger.  This poll indicates that President Bush has some underlying vulnerability on this issue, but the President’s relative ratings on defense and security have consistently indicated that Senator Kerry has yet to capitalize on this potential vulnerability.” 

 

 

About the Poll. The O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll is a web-based survey that was sent to all members of Greater Phoenix Leadership, Valley Leadership, East Valley Partnership, and Westmarc. As such, this survey does not purport to be a random or representative sampling of the general population of the Phoenix metropolitan area. It would be difficult, however, to conceive of a more comprehensive representation from which to draw inferences about the opinions and sensibilities of business and community leaders than the combined membership of these organizations, although, inevitably, any definition of influentials is somewhat subjective. The persons surveyed are likely to exert disproportionate influence on and be an early indicator of community opinion by virtue of their position, community involvement, and political participation. The O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll was not sponsored or paid for by any outside organization. 308 participants completed the survey between July 15 and August 2, 2004, yielding a margin of error of ±5.7%.  O’Neil Associates, Inc. is a Tempe-based public opinion research firm specializing in client-focused attitude and awareness studies for a wide variety of industries and organizations.
FOR RELEASE: Monday, September 27, 2007                         (VIP 038-2004-05)
FURTHER INFORMATION: Michael O'Neil, Ph.D., 480-967-4441 ext. 221 These results may be reported freely provided that they are identified as the “O’Neil Associates Valley Influentials Poll” including identification on any graphic material.
O’Neil Associates has tracked public opinion across the Valley, Arizona, and the Nation since 1981. To be healthy, public debate must be informed—this is why we commit our resources to measuring opinions on the political and social issues people care about and talk about. O’Neil Associates, however, is much more than that. While the Valley Influentials Poll and Valley Monitor may be our most publicly visible activities, we do most of our work for private businesses and organizations as well as state and other public agencies. As a full-service research firm, we assist our clients with a broad range of research efforts to measure customer satisfaction, improve customer service, fine-tune public images, focus marketing campaigns, engineer products, increase market shares, strengthen employee relations, and plan, refine, and assess business strategies.
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