Arpaio Still Most Popular Arizona Elected Official

But Margin Greatly Reduced

This survey, however, is not without a downside for Sheriff Arpaio.  His 69% approval rating, while still high, has fallen greatly in the past few years.

COMPARISONS WITH FEDERAL OFFICIALS

Comparing these ratings of Arizona office holders to those given to Arizona federal officials can add further insight into the standing of these public officials.  When we make these comparisons we find that Arpaio's 69% is only moderately higher than the ratings given to Senator John McCain (63%) or Senator John Kyl (63%).

The patterns of support for Senator McCain are particularly surprising.  Senator McCain is actually rated more highly by Independents (70%) and Democrats (66%) than by Republicans (59%).  This is an extraordinary finding for a well-known Republican elected official.  It stands in contrast to the patterns we have observed for him in past years as well as the more predictable partisan difference accorded other elected office holders.  For example, President Bush’s overall ratings of 51% are comprised of a 76% favorable rating among Republicans, a 46% favorable rating among Independents, and only a 14% rating among Democrats.

It should be noted that this poll was taken before the recent terrorist attack.  Based in the expected "rally 'round the President" phenomenon in times of crisis, we fully expect that President Bush's ratings will have climbed dramatically in Arizona as they have in other parts of the country.  Thus the figures for President Bush, in light of recent tragic events, should be seen more as a baseline historical fact, than as a measure of current public opinion about him.

TRENDS

In order to assess how these figures have fared over time, we compared them to ratings taken several years ago.

• Arpaio:  In  1997, Arpaio’s figure stood at 85%, which was more than 20% higher than any other elected official in the state at that time.  Also striking is the decrease the proportion assigning him an excellent rating.  This figure was 45%, in 1997, but is only 26% today.
   
• Hull:      Another noteworthy finding of this poll is the precipitous drop in the ratings of Governor Jane Hull.  Her performance is rated as excellent or good by 32% of voters, a figure which has fallen from 56% in 1997.  As a lame-duck governor who is precluded from re-election, the significance of these figures is probably not as great as for other elected officials who may have to face the voters again.
   
• McCain and Kyl: Senator Kyl's ratings have increased by 11%, now matching those ratings given to Senator McCain.  In the case of Senator McCain, the absolutely unchanged ratings are interesting given his prominence and his campaign for President.  The stability in McCain’s ratings masks a shift in the basis of his support, with Democrats becoming more favorable towards him, and the reverse occurring for Republicans.

About the Poll.  The O’Neil Associates Valley Monitor is an independent, scientific, periodic random community survey of the metropolitan Phoenix area and the State of Arizona; as always,  this Valley Monitor poll was not sponsored or paid for by any outside organization. Four hundred interviews were conducted with randomly selected Maricopa county voters between August 28 and September 3, 2001. The “sampling error” associated with this survey is approximately ±5.0%. In other words, the chances are approximately 95 in 100 that we would have obtained the same results—within a margin of ±5.0%—had we interviewed every Maricopa county voter. Other sources of possible survey error, such as question wording, should also be considered, but are inherently not quantifiable.